Koos van Houdt

There is a yawning gap between politicians in The Hague and ordinary Dutch people about European policy
The best characterization of this: “benevolent indifference”

You would think that farmers would like to see part of their income automatically deposited from the European treasury into their checking account every year. But not all farmers are happy with this. For example, there are farmers who are proud of their own business operations and bring good products to the market every year. I once spoke to such a farmer. He told me how humiliating it feels to knock on the government’s door for money again. “It feels like you’re on welfare, even though you’re working hard every day.”

When the European Union launched the common agricultural policy in 1962, the situation was quite different. The question of whether enough food could be produced was still very much on the table. The survival of all these farms was of vital importance to everyone. Nothing was too crazy to increase production and improve the quality of our food.

It is therefore not surprising that such a complex system of subsidies in agriculture has been developed. But after almost sixty years, there will be cutbacks in 2021. In a new period of probably seven years until 2027, farmers will have to earn more of their income by working their own production. A farmer has increasingly become an entrepreneur. She or he must learn to hold up his or her own pants.

European politics, like the politics that are made nationally in The Hague or in our provincial and town halls, is a matter of debate and making choices. Even stakeholders do not always think the same way, as this example of this farmer teaches us. Administrators therefore want to know in advance what ordinary people think about possible measures to be taken. To this end, a thriving market has emerged of all kinds of agencies that gauge opinions. The European Commission is a big deal. The ‘own’ Eurobarometer is a champion in this field.

Perhaps we were surprised when last month (23 May 2018) such a Eurobarometer poll showed that 79% of Dutch people think that their opinion counts in the decision-making process of the European Union. This put our country in the top three of European member states. The question and the answers differ from the other question of whether the Dutch are in favor of membership. But this and previous Eurobarometers also show that at least two out of three Dutch people are in favour of membership.

This is not only the case in 2018. That was already a fact around the year 2000. The Dutch sometimes don’t understand themselves. Why, then, did almost two out of three Dutch people vote in a referendum on 1 June 2005 against the European Constitutional Treaty that was on the table at the time? The Netherlands Institute for Social Research came up with a term for this. The Dutch show a “benevolent indifference” towards the European Union and the measures that come to us from that Union.

Questions, questions, questions.

Let’s start with the Eurobarometer itself. The institute seems to be above criticism. The European Commission in particular is very proud of this tool. But at Leiden University, researchers such as Jelke Bethlehem and Joop van Holsteyn are wide awake. They regularly subject the methods and techniques of Eurobarometer to critical scrutiny.

In an article recently published in 2017 entitled ‘Eurobar? Snags of the Eurobarometer’, they indicate that the instrument does not meet the scientifically developed criteria for credible research among ordinary people in all respects. The methods are not always transparent. It is not known exactly how many people refuse to answer questions. And there are critical comments to be made about the way in which the samples are drawn. Sometimes questions are or are poorly formulated. This can sometimes be so bad that a positive answer is built in in advance, as it were, when it comes to a conclusion that is to the liking of the client, the European Commission.

But their conclusion is not that Eurobarometer is worthless. Rather, their opinion can be described as ‘not ideal, but we don’t have anything better either’. Particularly since many years since 1972, when the Eurobarometer was launched, reliable trends have been measured in many areas, we can still describe to a large extent what ordinary people think about developments within the European Union.

To make things even more complicated: this Eurobarometer is so reliable that many ministries in the Netherlands also base themselves on the results of this voter survey, which is published at least twice a year. Therefore, when journalists make use of the results of the Eurobarometer, they should pay particular attention to observed trends over several years and not consider every percentage given for a particular opinion to be exactly correct. On that basis, we at Facts Found believe that we will find enough facts in the reports of this institution to pass on.

No nexit, according to Eurobarometer.

The Dutch know all too well on which side their sandwich is spread. They see the importance of innovation, of exporting and of travelling the world. Nowadays, this is so much easier and cheaper within and from the European Union than it used to be from a closed polder country with closed borders in the east and south.

Ordinary Dutch people generally feel at home in Europe, especially during the holidays. Potatoes to take to the campsite, bottles of wine back home in the trunk. Yes, the opposition to the franc and free European way of life has become much more visible in this century. But so far, it has never exceeded thirty percent of the population. At most, they say that they want to be in charge at home. Those who did so can stop dreaming: In the Netherlands, there is hardly any support for leaving the European Union (popularly known as ‘nexit’).

The Eurobarometer of 23 May was published exactly one year before the European elections will be held again between 23 and 26 May 2019. If the numbers are correct, we will see surprising things in our country next year. No, there will be no turnout above 80%, as was the case on 15 March 2017 in the previous elections for the House of Representatives.

But you might expect – given the measured figures – that the Dutch will increasingly see the importance of the European elections and of what the European Union means for the daily lives of ordinary Dutch people. You might expect a turnout of fifty to sixty percent. That would be much higher than the more than 37 percent in the European elections of May 2014.

You might indeed expect it, because support for the European Union among the Dutch seems to be growing strongly in recent years. At the moment, it is at least two-thirds. This growth is partly explained by the fact that many young people are learning to live, study and work on a European scale. In the Eurobarometer, the Netherlands scores the highest of all member states: 70% underline the importance of the European elections.

How, then, could the Netherlands capitalize on the still alive, more Eurosceptic feelings? The Eurobarometer survey shows that our country is significantly more negative about the European Parliament’s efforts to use the elections as a yardstick for the appointment of the new President of the European Commission. This process was rigged in 2014 and led to the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker. This was done with fresh reluctance on the part of most heads of government. But yes, Juncker was Spitzenkandidat (this German term for party leader is now commonplace) for the Christian Democrats. And that party-political family came out on top.

Mark Rutte has little support for many parts of his European agenda. Too much money for Europe? Oh well, it’s not that bad, say the Dutch. Too much power for the European Commission? Oh, the Dutch shrug their shoulders about it. But in the process of appointing the ‘Spitzenkandidat’ of the largest party-political family, the European-minded Dutch suddenly hesitate remarkably. Yes, it is much more transparent, say 75% of our compatriots. But no, only thirty percent, the lowest of all the Member States, feel extra motivated by voting. As you can read from many other questions, the Dutch are really concerned with the substantive results of European policy: energy transition, more safety.

Claes de Vreese, professor of political science at the University of Amsterdam, conducted his own research together with his students. He nuances all this European sentiment a little, but nevertheless comes to the conclusion that our country is essentially divided into three groups. A third are pro-European, one-third will not make much difference, but are not against it either, and about a quarter of the Dutch want to leave the European Union. Trust in the European Union is in itself quite high, but trust in politicians active within that Union is much less. A low 15% is at issue here, he has measured. He said this on Saturday 26 May in Nieuwsuur.

Netherlands Institute for Social Research

The nice thing about De Vreese’s research is that, when you compare his results with those of the Eurobarometer, you don’t see any major shifts in our country. The most pressing question is how it came about that on 1 June 2005 62% of the Dutch suddenly voted against the European constitutional treaty. Between 2005 and 2008, this question was extensively studied by the Netherlands Institute for Social Research. Two reports, the second of which was explicitly intended to monitor the first, drew the following conclusions.

Between the year 2000 and the current transitional years, the situation has been more or less stable. Around 35% of Dutch people support the European project and about 35% are not against it. How is it possible, then, that there was a negative sentiment between mid-May 2005 and the autumn? That remained a mystery for a long time. But from a study specifically aimed at these kinds of waves, the SCP concluded in the 2008 report that the existing middle group is neither for nor against.

If one continues to talk to people from this group for a longer period of time, they tend to speak out against current European developments just to be on the safe side, because of permanent doubts. Unknown makes unloved for a while. After a few months, they bounce back into their wavering, but not dismissive, attitude. We simply must not allow European integration to move too fast. That argument was often heard in the run-up to the referendum. That argument was also reflected in this study.

This state of affairs has been confirmed each time other aspects of European cooperation have come to the fore. First foreign policy, later defence and justice received more and more attention after the Maastricht Treaty (1992) was drawn up. That fostered unease. But it also led to a wider and wider realisation that European integration had become irreversible. Can we still manage our own affairs in our own country? This became especially clear as a result of the great crisis of 2008, when globalisation and Europeanisation also made the crisis felt by many. But never has the Netherlands been so Eurosceptic – not even during the recent crisis years – that it said ‘no’ to the European Union.

We still know very well on which side our sandwich is spread. The Netherlands Institute for Social Research has given this Dutch instability a nice label: “Benevolent indifference”.